Conference Musical Chairs Redux

Another round of Musical Chairs has begun in NCAA college football's conference playground. I recently tweeted about the fact that the Western Athletic Conference, with 16 teams for a few seasons, was the first Super Conference. Things definitely seem to be moving in that direction. For right now, the race seems to be on to see which of the Football Bowl Subdivision conferences can successfully make it to 12 or 14 teams. The Big Boys at major college football's training table (that's the SEC, the ACC, and the PAC-12) are taking theirs, leaving the other conferences to fight amongst each other for the scraps and try to survive. Here's what's happened, lately:

The Southeastern Conference has taken Texas A&M from the Big 12. The Aggie community had tired of the "One Big Cowboy, nine Little Indians" mentality of the Big 12, where everything favors the University of Texas. So, they took their football and left. The Aggies are a good fit in the SEC, but the moves leaves the SEC with an unwieldy 13 members. Seeing this situation as its opportunity, Missouri has given its chancellor the authority to find a new home for its athletics. The Tigers are expected to apply for SEC membership within days.

The Big 12 had hoped to solve its membership problem by hijacking Texas Christian University. TCU had already made the move from the Mountain West Conference to the Big East, with play to start next season. But, the Big 12, down to nine schools after the departure of Texas A&M, snapped its fingers and the Horned Frogs jumped at the chance to rejoin Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor for conference play. If Missouri leaves for the SEC, the Big 12 will once again be down to nine teams. It might need to go back to 12 teams, just for the sake of survival. The question is whether the top schools the Big 12 might target will still be available.

The Big 12 could get back to actually having 12 members if it added Houston, SMU, and BYU or Boise State, but those same schools are also on the radar of the Big East Conference. The Big East was recently raided (again) for two of its remaining crown jewels, with Pittsburgh and Syracuse bolting for the Atlantic Coast Conference, bringing ACC membership up to 14 teams. That left the Big East with only six football-playing members and there is plenty of gnashing of teeth going on. It's no secret that Connecticut also wants to join the ACC and is dismayed at being left behind. In fact, its women's basketball coach, Geno Auriemma, came right out and blamed Notre Dame for the Big East's woes, stating that if the Fighting Irish had joined the conference for football, Boston College, Virginia Tech, and the University of Miami would never have left!

The Big East is expected to soon add Central Florida and has an application in its hip pocket from East Carolina. After that, it's fair game, with Houston, SMU, Boise State, Army, Navy, and Air Force all being considered for membership. The Big East would also accept Notre Dame for football in a heartbeat. Notre Dame is a Big East member in all other sports.

Many of the schools being talked about as candidates to change conference, now reside in either the Mountain West or in Conference USA. After losing Utah to the PAC-12 and BYU to independence this year, the Mountain West had to add Boise State just to get back to eight members. The departure of Boise State would be another major blow to the conference's hopes of earning an automatic bid for its champion in football's Bowl Championship Series. Comparing its plight with that of C-USA, which has already lost Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida to the Big East (and TCU to the MWC), the Mountain West went into discussions with C-USA about a championship game between the two conferences. What they agreed on is a football-only alliance, including inter-league play.

While it is hoped that the MWC/C-USA champion might be extended a BCS bowl berth, the real reason for this mini-merger is survival. If Boise State and Air Force join the Big East, the MWC would be down to six schools. If Houston, SMU, Central Florida, and East Carolina also went to the Big East, that would restore the BEC to 12 members, but C-USA would only have eight schools left. If that were to take place, Conference USA and the Mountain West might just as well go ahead with a full merger and stand as one 14-team conference. Even if this new league lost a couple of other schools, there would still be 12 remaining members, which would be enough to stage a championship game in football.

This game of conference musical chairs might not stop until the Big Six conferences all have 16 members. That would make a total of 96 schools being big winners, with a chance to play for a national championship in football. Everybody else outside of that group, would be out of luck.