The year 2011 may go down in history as the year that set in motion the dawn of the Age of the Super-Conference in NCAA athletics. Texas A&M is leaving the mighty Big 12 Conference for residency in the Southeastern Conference, which will now number 13 schools, with 14 or 16 on the horizon. The Atlantic Coast Conference has just raided the Big East, taking away two of its gems, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, and moving to 14 institutions. Last year, the PAC-10 Conference tried to become the PAC-16 by adding teams from the Big 12, which had just lost Nebraska to the expanding Big 10. Failing, it added only Colorado from the Big 12, then took on Utah from the Mountain West Conference, becoming the PAC-12. This year, those same teams that shunned the PAC-10 a year ago, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, came begging the PAC-12 for a new home. The move would have blown up the Big 12 in the same way the old South West Conference was blown up in 1996. The PAC-12 politely declined.
The Big East has already added Texas Christian from the Mountain West for next season. This prompted the MWC, which also lost BYU to independence and the aforementioned Utah, to raid the Western Athletic Conference, taking away Boise State, Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii (football only). The football conference has actually grown from nine teams to ten, even with the recent losses.
People are now wondering where this game of conference musical chairs will stop. The SEC may be on the verge of taking Missouri from the Big 12. The Big 12's major players (read: Texas and Oklahoma) have now vowed to keep the conference together. Their best chance of doing that might be to move back to 12 teams (the Big 12 is playing this year with 10 members, while the Big 10 is playing with 12 members). The Big 12 is said to be considering adding everyone from Boise State to BYU to Houston to Notre Dame. You heard correctly: Notre Dame! The Big East has an official application for membership from East Carolina, and may add service academies Army, Navy, and even Air Force. The depleted WAC is bringing up reinforcements like Northern Colorado and Texas-Arlington from the Football Championship Sub-division (the old Division 1-AA), just to stay afloat.
There seems to be a race to see which of the major conferences will be the first to expand all the way to 16 teams. Articles are being written, speculating on what the college football landscape might look like with five or six super-leagues of 16 teams, each. All of this is very interesting. But, the fact is, there has already been a super-conference. The idea was definitely ahead of its time - and it only lasted for three seasons - but it was the Western Athletic Conference that first made this bold move after the demise of the South West Conference in 1996.
The schools in the South West Conference had been playing football together for around 70 years, in one form or another, when the league expanded to nine teams in 1975 by adding the University of Houston. That was a move that made the SWC even stronger than it had been before, especially in basketball, where Houston has a top-tier program. The first blow, however, in the destruction of the conference came directly from the east. The SEC decided to add to a good thing in 1992, expanding from 10 to 12 schools by bringing in former ACC member South Carolina and taking Arkansas back from the SWC.
The old Big Eight Conference, seeing what the SEC had done (and noticing the mounds of cash that were being made in that league's nifty, new championship game), was not going to just sit idly by and be upstaged, and certainly not for long. Secret talks between university presidents were undertaken. Then, on February 25, 1994, came the blockbuster announcement: Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Baylor would join with the schools of the Big Eight, becoming a new league, the Big 12, commencing with the 1996-97 academic and athletic school year.
While the new league and its new rivalries certainly excited the world of College Football as a whole, little consideration was given to the former SWC institutions that were left for dead: Houston, Rice, Texas Christian, and Southern Methodist. (SMU's football program receiving the NCAA's "death penalty" in 1987 for major recruiting violations, was another major blow to the conference.) It is quite ironic that Baylor University has made such a fuss, recently, about suing Texas A&M for its impending departure from the Big 12. Baylor is the same institution that turned its back on its former SWC brethren without so much as a damn in 1996, gladly accepting doormat status in the Big 12's southern division in exchange for the huge annual payouts that are earned by the league's Big Boys. The threatened dissolution of the Big 12 would have left Baylor face-to-face with membership in the Mountain West and its smaller distribution checks, and it was laughable to see the Bears, for a few tense weeks, sweating and whining like Pigs.
Looking back, it's really hard to understand why the Big Eight and SWC didn't just merge into a 16-team conference at that time. I guess they just didn't want to split the profits 16 ways. Oklahoma was not approving the move unless Texas was included, and Texas wasn't going anywhere without Texas A&M and Texas Tech as in-state rivals. Baylor only got an invite because the number of teams moving had to be an even number. Houston, coming from a major television market and being more competitive than Baylor in football and basketball, must have really ticked someone off (Texas), to be excluded from the mix. As it was, the previously-mentioned former SWC schools were left out in the cold. That was where the WAC came in.
The Western Athletic Conference was born in 1962 from a merger between former schools of the old Border and Skyline conferences. The six charter members were Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. Colorado State and Texas-El Paso (UTEP)were added in 1968. In 1978, the old PAC-8 Conference invited Arizona and Arizona State to join, thus becoming the PAC-10. That same year, San Diego State joined the WAC, followed in short order by Air Force (1979), and Hawaii (1980). The addition of Fresno State in 1992 brought the membership up to 10 schools.
With four schools now available that had been considered by the press and public to be "major" programs, and with the conference also wanting to also be considered Big League, the WAC made a bold move, indeed, inviting all four of the Big Eight castoffs to join the league in 1996. Houston declined, forming the new Conference USA with Tulane, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Southern Mississippi. The WAC's invitation was accepted by Rice, TCU, and SMU, with Houston's spot going to a formerly independent program, Tulsa. Also moving up, from the old Big West Conference, were San Jose State and Nevada-Las Vegas (UNLV).
The WAC's move to 16 teams was unpopular, mostly due to the long distances the schools had to conquer in order to play each other. The league footprint of the Super-WAC covered Honolulu to Houston and San Diego to Laramie, Wyoming. It was considered to be just too big and too awkward to be a success, and no one was really happy with it. The idea still might have worked, however, if the 16 athletic programs had at least all made it to "major" status. That just did not happen. Without Texas, Oklahoma, et al., the new WAC members who had been in the SWC were considered just additions to the also-rans. (Houston also did not escape, running into the same "small-time" status problem in its new league.) Early in 1999, eight of the stronger WAC institutions (seven of which had been in the nine-team WAC after 1980) seceded from the league, establishing the new Mountain West Conference.
UNLV was the only "new" member invited to join the Mountain West. Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, TCU, and SMU all eventually wound up in Conference USA, although TCU ultimately won MWC membership in 2005. The WAC, with Hawaii, Fresno State and San Jose State as anchor tenants, carried on, surviving by adding Nevada (2000); Boise State and Louisiana Tech (2001); and Utah State, New Mexico State, and Idaho (2005). With the upcoming departures of Hawaii and Fresno State, San Jose State will be left as the only school remaining of the eight schools that made up the WAC after the Mountain West split.
Conference USA is another league that changed, all the way to 12 teams, and at one time housed all of the former SWC schools that did not join the Big 12. Ironically, a new response by the Mountain West Conference and Conference USA to all of this change is the consideration of a football-only merger between them, with the champions of the leagues meeting for an overall championship and a hoped-for spot in college football's Bowl Championship Series.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Last-Minute NFL Predictions
Another National Football League season is upon us. We've all endured an off-season like no other, wondering if the players and owners would be able to come to a new collective bargaining agreement, or if a player strike/owner lockout would cancel the season and eradicate pro football's bedrock of fan loyalty. In the end, a deal was struck and a new CBA agreed to. Still, the effect of the lockout was pervasive, with players out of shape because of the cancellation of organized team workouts, and with a shortened free agency period that was a real free-for-all. Changes abound on the field and on the sidelines, but someone has to win the NFL's eight divisions. Here are my choices, with teams listed in predicted order of finish:
AFC EAST The New England Patriots should be the choice to win the division, until someone actually beats them. Some of the parts seem interchangeable, but the team still has head coach Bill Belichick devising the game plans and driving the troops. QB Tom Brady can win any football game, anywhere at any time, and he still has devastating weapons like WRs Wes Welker and Chad Ochocinco. The defense has been reloaded and is rapidly improving. I think they'll win every division game and cruise to another division title. The New York Jets beat the Patriots in the playoffs and made it to the AFC title game last year, in head coach Rex Ryan's breakthrough season. QB Mark Sanchez will be a year wiser and will also have elite targets in WRs Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress. RB LaDainian Tomlinson is back for a final year of inspiration, and Ryan always runs a great defense, with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie forming one of the league's top cornerback tandems. The Jets will sneak up on no one this year, however, and least of all the Pats. The Miami Dolphins have improved under head coach Tony Sparano, but are nowhere near the level of the division's leaders. Nor is QB Chad Henne even approaching the level of play that Brady and Sanchez have achieved. The Buffalo Bills have been stuck in a rut in this division since its inception, with no end in sight. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is slowly improving, but having the worst quarterback play in the division is no way to escape this abyss. The Bills have nowhere to go, and that includes, "up"!
AFC North This will be another war between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. Both teams play grind-it-out, smash-it-up, old-school football. Ben Roethlisberger versus Joe Flacco will again be the top intra-division quarterback matchup. But it's the defenses, led by linebackers James Harrison and Ray Lewis, that really drive this rivalry. The Steelers usually win this division because they always have such a big home-field advantage, but both teams should make the playoffs. The Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals will again fight it out for third place. I have to give the Browns the edge, because Cincinnati is going to have to get used to life without both QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Ochocinco.
AFC South With the Indianapolis Colts playing without Peyton Manning, the Tennessee Titans starting over without head coach Jeff Fisher and QB Vince Young, and the Jacksonville Jaguars having just released starting QB David Garrard in favor of Luke McCown, I can only pick the Houston Texans to win their first division title. Houston is loaded on offense, with QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson, and RB Arian Foster (if he's healthy). Indy brought in previously retired QB Kerry Collins to fill in for Manning, but there is something very unequal about that tradeoff! Jacksonville will be playing for head coach Jack Del Rio's job. They should be hungry enough to grab third place. Tennessee will have stud RB Chris Johnson back, but who is the quarterback?
AFC West Even with suffering through the worst special teams play in the history of the NFL last season, the San Diego Chargers still would have won this division if they'd beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1. (They crushed the Chiefs 31-0 in the Week 14 rematch.) QB Philip Rivers led the NFL in passing yards, despite needing a scorecard to tell who his receivers were. This year, TE Antonio Gates looks good after being injured and WR Vincent Jackson looked great in pre-season after holding out in 2010. SS Bob Sanders, newly signed from the Colts, brings attitude after missing time in recent years with injuries. Watch out! The Chiefs have a rapidly improving young defense and should be good enough to hang on for second place. The Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos will both have new head coaches in Hue Jackson and John Fox, respectively. Jackson inherits a team that went 6-0 in the division last year and still missed the playoffs! The Raiders are improving and could pass the Chiefs. Sacrificing a 3rd-round draft choice to pick up QB Terrelle Pryor in the supplemental draft could be the best move this team has made in years. After the Josh McDaniel debacle, Denver needed an experienced hand at head coach. However, I wonder if Fox can still relate to today's NFL players?
NFC East Locking up QB Michael Vick with a long-term contract, trading former starting QB Kevin Kolb to Arizona for CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and more, and signing the top free agent available in CB Nnamdi Asomugha, shows that the Philadelphia Eagles are serious about staying on top, today and tomorrow. Nnamdi and Dominique form a scary, sick cornerback combo, and another great corner, Asante Samuel is still on the roster! The Eagles will be the Beast of the East. I give the Dallas Cowboys the edge over the New York Giants for second place. Jason Garrett is a good, young head coach who will lead his players to a better overall performance and a playoff spot in 2011. On the other hand, New York's head coach, Tom Coughlin, can be so abrasive that he may lose the locker room, if things start to go badly. As for the Washington Redskins, they keep trying to make the right moves. They simply do not match up with the other teams in this tough division, making last place their destiny.
NFC North The Green Bay Packers were lucky to even make the playoffs last year, but they peaked at just the right time and won the Super Bowl. Led by QB Aaron Rodgers, the Pack will have that winning swagger. This year, they will take the division. The Detroit Lions have done all the right things since their infamous 0-16 season. The offense, led by QB Matthew Stafford, is fast improving and the defense, spearheaded by DT Ndamukong Suh, is a lurking monster that will soon be one of the best in the NFL - maybe even this year. Detroit's long-suffering fans deserve a winner, but the competition for the final playoff spot in the NFC will be stiff and the Lions will miss out, for now. The Minnesota Vikings have one of the game's top running backs in Adrian Peterson, but new starting QB Donovan McNabb has shown his age in recent years. He'll be an improvement over the poor showing Brett Favre put up in his final season, but the Vikes will do well to finish 8-8. As for the Chicago Bears, I believe they are going to sink with error-prone Jay Cutler at quarterback, all the way to last place. If this does happen, it will probably cost head coach Lovie Smith his job.
NFC South This is the toughest division to win in the NFL. Since its inception in 2002, the NFC South has seen no team repeat as its division champion. That's not good news for last year's winners, the Atlanta Falcons. With an offense spearheaded by QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, and WR Roddy White, and with an improving defense, the Falcons will likely break that trend, this year. I see the New Orleans Saints, led by QB Drew Brees, repeating as an NFC wild card team, despite the questions brought on by their poor defensive showing in last year's playoffs loss to Seattle. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be an improved team overall, but I call for them to plateau this year, as QB Josh Freeman hits a bit of a wall against opposing defenses. Like the Lions, the Bucs are a likely breakthrough team in 2012. The Carolina Panthers have hired the right man in new head coach Ron Rivera. Rivera was the defensive coordinator of the NFL's top-ranked defense last year in San Diego. He will bring intensity and toughness to the Panthers, but this is a hard division in which to try and make progress. Even with QB Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy winner, taking over the offense, Carolina has a long way to go to make it back to the top.
NFC West I had been thinking that the Arizona Cardinals were doomed for another last-place finish due to quarterback woes, but shortly after the lockout ended, they traded for Philadelphia's erstwhile starter, Kevin Kolb. Kolb looked good in the Cards' pre-season games. He and All-World WR Larry Fitzgerald already seem to have a healthy chemistry between them, and both are locked up with multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts. RB Beanie Wells looks ready to shine, now that he will no longer share the football with the traded Tim Hightower. And, let's face it, the competition is weak in the worst division in pro football. Arizona gets my vote for first place. The St. Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks will both be improved, but both may wind up with worse records than they had in 2011. The defending division champion Seahawks will have improved morale after the upset playoff win, but it remains to be seen if QB Tarvaris Jackson can step in and be the team's on-field leader. I think the Rams, led by QB Sam Bradford and RB Steven Jackson will slip by the Hawks for second place. Bringing up the rear will be the San Francisco 49ers, who have a top-notch running back in Frank Gore, but who are again going to start Alex Smith at quarterback. The Niners are said to be considering adding QB David Garrard, recently released by the Jaguars and who'd probably be an upgrade over Smith.
My wild card teams are the Cowboys and Saints in the NFC and the Jets and Ravens in the AFC. In the NFC playoffs, I see the Eagles and Packers meeting in the championship game, with Michael Vick leading the Eagles to a surprising win on the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field. In the AFC, I think finishing out of the playoffs in 2010 will be good for San Diego. I see the Chargers bowling over the Patriots in the AFC title game in San Diego, and finally hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for the first time with a convincing Super Bowl win over the Eagles in Indianapolis, a place where they always seem to play well!
AFC EAST The New England Patriots should be the choice to win the division, until someone actually beats them. Some of the parts seem interchangeable, but the team still has head coach Bill Belichick devising the game plans and driving the troops. QB Tom Brady can win any football game, anywhere at any time, and he still has devastating weapons like WRs Wes Welker and Chad Ochocinco. The defense has been reloaded and is rapidly improving. I think they'll win every division game and cruise to another division title. The New York Jets beat the Patriots in the playoffs and made it to the AFC title game last year, in head coach Rex Ryan's breakthrough season. QB Mark Sanchez will be a year wiser and will also have elite targets in WRs Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress. RB LaDainian Tomlinson is back for a final year of inspiration, and Ryan always runs a great defense, with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie forming one of the league's top cornerback tandems. The Jets will sneak up on no one this year, however, and least of all the Pats. The Miami Dolphins have improved under head coach Tony Sparano, but are nowhere near the level of the division's leaders. Nor is QB Chad Henne even approaching the level of play that Brady and Sanchez have achieved. The Buffalo Bills have been stuck in a rut in this division since its inception, with no end in sight. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is slowly improving, but having the worst quarterback play in the division is no way to escape this abyss. The Bills have nowhere to go, and that includes, "up"!
AFC North This will be another war between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. Both teams play grind-it-out, smash-it-up, old-school football. Ben Roethlisberger versus Joe Flacco will again be the top intra-division quarterback matchup. But it's the defenses, led by linebackers James Harrison and Ray Lewis, that really drive this rivalry. The Steelers usually win this division because they always have such a big home-field advantage, but both teams should make the playoffs. The Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals will again fight it out for third place. I have to give the Browns the edge, because Cincinnati is going to have to get used to life without both QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Ochocinco.
AFC South With the Indianapolis Colts playing without Peyton Manning, the Tennessee Titans starting over without head coach Jeff Fisher and QB Vince Young, and the Jacksonville Jaguars having just released starting QB David Garrard in favor of Luke McCown, I can only pick the Houston Texans to win their first division title. Houston is loaded on offense, with QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson, and RB Arian Foster (if he's healthy). Indy brought in previously retired QB Kerry Collins to fill in for Manning, but there is something very unequal about that tradeoff! Jacksonville will be playing for head coach Jack Del Rio's job. They should be hungry enough to grab third place. Tennessee will have stud RB Chris Johnson back, but who is the quarterback?
AFC West Even with suffering through the worst special teams play in the history of the NFL last season, the San Diego Chargers still would have won this division if they'd beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1. (They crushed the Chiefs 31-0 in the Week 14 rematch.) QB Philip Rivers led the NFL in passing yards, despite needing a scorecard to tell who his receivers were. This year, TE Antonio Gates looks good after being injured and WR Vincent Jackson looked great in pre-season after holding out in 2010. SS Bob Sanders, newly signed from the Colts, brings attitude after missing time in recent years with injuries. Watch out! The Chiefs have a rapidly improving young defense and should be good enough to hang on for second place. The Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos will both have new head coaches in Hue Jackson and John Fox, respectively. Jackson inherits a team that went 6-0 in the division last year and still missed the playoffs! The Raiders are improving and could pass the Chiefs. Sacrificing a 3rd-round draft choice to pick up QB Terrelle Pryor in the supplemental draft could be the best move this team has made in years. After the Josh McDaniel debacle, Denver needed an experienced hand at head coach. However, I wonder if Fox can still relate to today's NFL players?
NFC East Locking up QB Michael Vick with a long-term contract, trading former starting QB Kevin Kolb to Arizona for CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and more, and signing the top free agent available in CB Nnamdi Asomugha, shows that the Philadelphia Eagles are serious about staying on top, today and tomorrow. Nnamdi and Dominique form a scary, sick cornerback combo, and another great corner, Asante Samuel is still on the roster! The Eagles will be the Beast of the East. I give the Dallas Cowboys the edge over the New York Giants for second place. Jason Garrett is a good, young head coach who will lead his players to a better overall performance and a playoff spot in 2011. On the other hand, New York's head coach, Tom Coughlin, can be so abrasive that he may lose the locker room, if things start to go badly. As for the Washington Redskins, they keep trying to make the right moves. They simply do not match up with the other teams in this tough division, making last place their destiny.
NFC North The Green Bay Packers were lucky to even make the playoffs last year, but they peaked at just the right time and won the Super Bowl. Led by QB Aaron Rodgers, the Pack will have that winning swagger. This year, they will take the division. The Detroit Lions have done all the right things since their infamous 0-16 season. The offense, led by QB Matthew Stafford, is fast improving and the defense, spearheaded by DT Ndamukong Suh, is a lurking monster that will soon be one of the best in the NFL - maybe even this year. Detroit's long-suffering fans deserve a winner, but the competition for the final playoff spot in the NFC will be stiff and the Lions will miss out, for now. The Minnesota Vikings have one of the game's top running backs in Adrian Peterson, but new starting QB Donovan McNabb has shown his age in recent years. He'll be an improvement over the poor showing Brett Favre put up in his final season, but the Vikes will do well to finish 8-8. As for the Chicago Bears, I believe they are going to sink with error-prone Jay Cutler at quarterback, all the way to last place. If this does happen, it will probably cost head coach Lovie Smith his job.
NFC South This is the toughest division to win in the NFL. Since its inception in 2002, the NFC South has seen no team repeat as its division champion. That's not good news for last year's winners, the Atlanta Falcons. With an offense spearheaded by QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, and WR Roddy White, and with an improving defense, the Falcons will likely break that trend, this year. I see the New Orleans Saints, led by QB Drew Brees, repeating as an NFC wild card team, despite the questions brought on by their poor defensive showing in last year's playoffs loss to Seattle. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be an improved team overall, but I call for them to plateau this year, as QB Josh Freeman hits a bit of a wall against opposing defenses. Like the Lions, the Bucs are a likely breakthrough team in 2012. The Carolina Panthers have hired the right man in new head coach Ron Rivera. Rivera was the defensive coordinator of the NFL's top-ranked defense last year in San Diego. He will bring intensity and toughness to the Panthers, but this is a hard division in which to try and make progress. Even with QB Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy winner, taking over the offense, Carolina has a long way to go to make it back to the top.
NFC West I had been thinking that the Arizona Cardinals were doomed for another last-place finish due to quarterback woes, but shortly after the lockout ended, they traded for Philadelphia's erstwhile starter, Kevin Kolb. Kolb looked good in the Cards' pre-season games. He and All-World WR Larry Fitzgerald already seem to have a healthy chemistry between them, and both are locked up with multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts. RB Beanie Wells looks ready to shine, now that he will no longer share the football with the traded Tim Hightower. And, let's face it, the competition is weak in the worst division in pro football. Arizona gets my vote for first place. The St. Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks will both be improved, but both may wind up with worse records than they had in 2011. The defending division champion Seahawks will have improved morale after the upset playoff win, but it remains to be seen if QB Tarvaris Jackson can step in and be the team's on-field leader. I think the Rams, led by QB Sam Bradford and RB Steven Jackson will slip by the Hawks for second place. Bringing up the rear will be the San Francisco 49ers, who have a top-notch running back in Frank Gore, but who are again going to start Alex Smith at quarterback. The Niners are said to be considering adding QB David Garrard, recently released by the Jaguars and who'd probably be an upgrade over Smith.
My wild card teams are the Cowboys and Saints in the NFC and the Jets and Ravens in the AFC. In the NFC playoffs, I see the Eagles and Packers meeting in the championship game, with Michael Vick leading the Eagles to a surprising win on the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field. In the AFC, I think finishing out of the playoffs in 2010 will be good for San Diego. I see the Chargers bowling over the Patriots in the AFC title game in San Diego, and finally hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for the first time with a convincing Super Bowl win over the Eagles in Indianapolis, a place where they always seem to play well!
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