Last-Minute NFL Predictions!

Maybe I’m wrong, but I decided to classify these predictions as "last minute," because I doubt you’ll find any predictions being posted later than this, for the upcoming National Football League season.

For the NFL, the year 2009 will feature several prominent returns:

Tom Brady returns to the New England Patriots, after missing nearly all of 2008 with a season-ending knee injury he suffered in the first game. Although they got stellar quarterback play from Brady’s backup, Matt Cassell (now with Kansas City), the Patriots, three-time Super Bowl champions and perennial playoff contenders, missed the post-season in 2008. Getting Brady, the league’s Most Valuable Player in 2007, back likely means a return to the top of the AFC East for the Patriots.

Brett Favre returns to the NFL (again) after his second "retirement," this time to the Minnesota Vikings, his longtime NFC Central/North rivals from his days of quarterbacking the Green Bay Packers. Last year, Favre had a pretty nice first 2/3 of his lone season with the New York Jets. The last third of the season, however, was dismal, with an injured Favre being very ineffective down the stretch, the Jets free-falling right out of playoff contention, and Favre stating emphatically after the last game that he was through. The Vikings shelved a planned competition between incumbent starter Tarvaris Jackson and newcomer Sage Rosenfels, and went to great lengths to sign Favre. Reportedly, the Viking locker room is splintered over who the starting quarterback should be. If the Favre signing does not work out, heads are going to roll. Stay tuned.

Michael Vick returns to the NFL after missing two years due to his criminal and legal issues. Once he was released from prison, it really did not take Vick long to land a backup QB job with the Philadelphia Eagles. He will be eligible to play in the season’s third week, after serving a two-game suspension for conduct unbecoming. By all accounts, Vick has quickly gotten back into the swing of NFL life. It remains to be seen, if Vick gets the chance to play and how well he does.

Shawne Merriman returns to the San Diego Chargers after missing virtually all of the 2008 season. Merriman’s knee injury was actually sustained in the previous year’s playoff victory over Tennessee. With Merriman that year, the San Diego defense was dominating, leading the league in take-aways and placing high in sacks. Last year, the San Diego defense was victimized and exposed repeatedly, resulting in the team having a 4-8 record after 12 games. Somehow, the Chargers rallied to win the AFC West and also to defeat Indianapolis in the playoffs. With Merriman back (once he is at full strength), the Charger defense has a chance to propel the team to Super Bowl contention.

In revealing my predictions for 2009, I have to say that I think it will be a year of extremes, in terms of the haves and the have-nots. I expect there to be several teams with outstanding records of 11-5 or better in each conference. Not all of these teams will be able to make the playoffs. Especially in the AFC, I expect competition for the six playoff berths to be torrid. My feeling is that fine teams like the Tennessee Titans, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Arizona Cardinals (can you say, Super Bowl runner-up Jinx?) will miss the Super Bowl tournament.
When it’s all said and done, I look for the San Diego Chargers to go on the road and avenge past playoff losses at New England and Pittsburgh. My forecast calls for lightning to prevail in a Chargers-Saints match-up at the Super Bowl in Miami.

Here’s a look at each divisional race:

AFC East: The Patriots have been bolstered by the addition of four players picked in the second round of this year’s NFL draft, greatly improving the depth of an already great team. I expect them to basically run roughshod over everyone else in their division and finish 14-2, losing only to New Orleans and Indy (both on the road). They should get extreme pleasure from sweeping the Dolphins, who won the division last year. I think the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets will all finish at 5-11.

AFC North: The Steelers traditionally field the toughest defense in the NFL. It should be know different in 2009. Pittsburgh won it all in 2008 because that defense manages to be both highly aggressive and highly disciplined, the offense has a knack for making big plays, and they have, arguably, the best head coach in the NFL in Mike Tomlin. I also see the Steelers finishing at 14-2, losing only at Cincinnati and at Baltimore. I expect the Bengals and Ravens to both finish 12-4 and be the Wild Card playoff teams, which is not good news for the aforementioned Jaguars and Titans. I see a rough year ahead for the Browns, who might only win a couple of games.

AFC South: Indianapolis remains the team to beat. The Colts have a new head coach, but will have the same expectations. Jim Caldwell was not a winning head coach in the college ranks. He will need to win here, right away. He will not get too much of a honeymoon. The Tennessee Titans actually unseated the Colts as the champions of the division. They are well-coached by the dean of NFL coaches, Jeff Fisher, but the loss of their best player, Albert Haynesworth (in free agency, to Washington), will hurt their defense. I expect them to drop to third place in the division, behind a Jacksonville squad that will be improved, but not enough to make the playoffs in the strong AFC. The Jaguars could be out of the running, despite an
11-5 record! Once again, Houston will be improved, but in such a tough division, that improvement will not equate to a winning record.

AFC West: The Chargers will win this division, in a waltz. I call for them to finish 13-3, losing on the road to Pittsburgh, Dallas, and the Giants. Really, 15-1 is possible for this team. Besides getting Merriman back to help the defense, this team is scary on offense. QB Philip Rivers led the NFL in passer rating, last year. He has top-shelf playmaking ability at every position, including Antonio Gates, who is again healthy and is the best tight end in the game of football. And, don’t forget: LaDainian Tomlinson was the NFL’s rushing champion in both 2006 and 2007. He was hurt last year, but he is back, with a chip on his shoulder. LT could be right back on top of the world, if he is truly recovered from his injuries. As for the Broncos, Raiders, and Chiefs: It’s rock bottom time. All three could finish 3-13!

NFC East: The Giants are a good team that is certainly capable of returning to the Super Bowl. I think they will finish with a record of 13-3, putting them right back in the Elite Teams category. Quarterback Eli Manning has to prove that he can lead a very good team and make it a great one. When they won the Super Bowl after 2007, the team carried the quarterback. Now, the tables have turned. I don’t think the Giants get back to the Big Dance, unless the quarterback can now carry the team. The goal of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has been to get the Cowboys ready for Prime Time when their new stadium opens. I think the ‘Boys and the Eagles will make the NFC tournament at 11-5. As for the Redskins, yes they got Haynesworth to improve their defense, but the division is far too strong to allow them to move up. They’ll finish with a losing record, and I think that will cost Head Coach Jim Zorn his job.

NFC North: There is no outstanding team here. I give the edge to the Packers, only because they are so hard to beat at Lambeau Field. I don’t see them losing any division games at home, this year, but still I only see them finishing at 9-7. Brett Favre will not make much difference in the Vikings. In fact, I think they finish 7-9 and miss the playoffs. As for the Bears, they managed to land the QB they coveted when they traded with the Broncos for Jay Cutler. However, Cutler won’t have the kind of receivers he used to have in Denver. I say the Bears will slide to 5-11, costing Lovie Smith his head coaching position. The Lions will be improved, but after an 0-16 finish in 2008, that’s not saying much. I think they will tie Tampa Bay’s all-time record of 26 straight losses, before finally winning in week 11, when Cleveland comes to town.

NFC South: This will be the year that the Saints finally go marching in to a championship game. The defense may not be exactly top-notch, but QB Drew Brees and the offense will be virtually unstoppable. There is tremendous balance in this division, which I think will lead to the Falcons and Panthers disappointing their fans and finishing 8-8. The Buccaneers have a new head coach and will be going through a transition year. I look for them to finish at 6-10 in Ragheim Morris’s first season.

NFC West: Last year, the Cardinals had no competition, going 6-0 in divisional games and making the playoff despite a 9-7 finish. They got hot at the right time and beat the Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles to make it to the Super Bowl, where they nearly beat the Steelers to win the NFL championship. This year, I expect the Cards to be good, but the much-improved Seahawks will catch them in the standings, with both teams finishing at 10-6. Just who goes to the playoffs will likely depend on who wins the game between the two teams in Seattle during Week 6. The 49ers and Rams will both be improved over 2008, but I don’t think either team will win more than 5 games.