Thursday, September 10, 2009

Last-Minute NFL Predictions!

Maybe I’m wrong, but I decided to classify these predictions as "last minute," because I doubt you’ll find any predictions being posted later than this, for the upcoming National Football League season.

For the NFL, the year 2009 will feature several prominent returns:

Tom Brady returns to the New England Patriots, after missing nearly all of 2008 with a season-ending knee injury he suffered in the first game. Although they got stellar quarterback play from Brady’s backup, Matt Cassell (now with Kansas City), the Patriots, three-time Super Bowl champions and perennial playoff contenders, missed the post-season in 2008. Getting Brady, the league’s Most Valuable Player in 2007, back likely means a return to the top of the AFC East for the Patriots.

Brett Favre returns to the NFL (again) after his second "retirement," this time to the Minnesota Vikings, his longtime NFC Central/North rivals from his days of quarterbacking the Green Bay Packers. Last year, Favre had a pretty nice first 2/3 of his lone season with the New York Jets. The last third of the season, however, was dismal, with an injured Favre being very ineffective down the stretch, the Jets free-falling right out of playoff contention, and Favre stating emphatically after the last game that he was through. The Vikings shelved a planned competition between incumbent starter Tarvaris Jackson and newcomer Sage Rosenfels, and went to great lengths to sign Favre. Reportedly, the Viking locker room is splintered over who the starting quarterback should be. If the Favre signing does not work out, heads are going to roll. Stay tuned.

Michael Vick returns to the NFL after missing two years due to his criminal and legal issues. Once he was released from prison, it really did not take Vick long to land a backup QB job with the Philadelphia Eagles. He will be eligible to play in the season’s third week, after serving a two-game suspension for conduct unbecoming. By all accounts, Vick has quickly gotten back into the swing of NFL life. It remains to be seen, if Vick gets the chance to play and how well he does.

Shawne Merriman returns to the San Diego Chargers after missing virtually all of the 2008 season. Merriman’s knee injury was actually sustained in the previous year’s playoff victory over Tennessee. With Merriman that year, the San Diego defense was dominating, leading the league in take-aways and placing high in sacks. Last year, the San Diego defense was victimized and exposed repeatedly, resulting in the team having a 4-8 record after 12 games. Somehow, the Chargers rallied to win the AFC West and also to defeat Indianapolis in the playoffs. With Merriman back (once he is at full strength), the Charger defense has a chance to propel the team to Super Bowl contention.

In revealing my predictions for 2009, I have to say that I think it will be a year of extremes, in terms of the haves and the have-nots. I expect there to be several teams with outstanding records of 11-5 or better in each conference. Not all of these teams will be able to make the playoffs. Especially in the AFC, I expect competition for the six playoff berths to be torrid. My feeling is that fine teams like the Tennessee Titans, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Arizona Cardinals (can you say, Super Bowl runner-up Jinx?) will miss the Super Bowl tournament.
When it’s all said and done, I look for the San Diego Chargers to go on the road and avenge past playoff losses at New England and Pittsburgh. My forecast calls for lightning to prevail in a Chargers-Saints match-up at the Super Bowl in Miami.

Here’s a look at each divisional race:

AFC East: The Patriots have been bolstered by the addition of four players picked in the second round of this year’s NFL draft, greatly improving the depth of an already great team. I expect them to basically run roughshod over everyone else in their division and finish 14-2, losing only to New Orleans and Indy (both on the road). They should get extreme pleasure from sweeping the Dolphins, who won the division last year. I think the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets will all finish at 5-11.

AFC North: The Steelers traditionally field the toughest defense in the NFL. It should be know different in 2009. Pittsburgh won it all in 2008 because that defense manages to be both highly aggressive and highly disciplined, the offense has a knack for making big plays, and they have, arguably, the best head coach in the NFL in Mike Tomlin. I also see the Steelers finishing at 14-2, losing only at Cincinnati and at Baltimore. I expect the Bengals and Ravens to both finish 12-4 and be the Wild Card playoff teams, which is not good news for the aforementioned Jaguars and Titans. I see a rough year ahead for the Browns, who might only win a couple of games.

AFC South: Indianapolis remains the team to beat. The Colts have a new head coach, but will have the same expectations. Jim Caldwell was not a winning head coach in the college ranks. He will need to win here, right away. He will not get too much of a honeymoon. The Tennessee Titans actually unseated the Colts as the champions of the division. They are well-coached by the dean of NFL coaches, Jeff Fisher, but the loss of their best player, Albert Haynesworth (in free agency, to Washington), will hurt their defense. I expect them to drop to third place in the division, behind a Jacksonville squad that will be improved, but not enough to make the playoffs in the strong AFC. The Jaguars could be out of the running, despite an
11-5 record! Once again, Houston will be improved, but in such a tough division, that improvement will not equate to a winning record.

AFC West: The Chargers will win this division, in a waltz. I call for them to finish 13-3, losing on the road to Pittsburgh, Dallas, and the Giants. Really, 15-1 is possible for this team. Besides getting Merriman back to help the defense, this team is scary on offense. QB Philip Rivers led the NFL in passer rating, last year. He has top-shelf playmaking ability at every position, including Antonio Gates, who is again healthy and is the best tight end in the game of football. And, don’t forget: LaDainian Tomlinson was the NFL’s rushing champion in both 2006 and 2007. He was hurt last year, but he is back, with a chip on his shoulder. LT could be right back on top of the world, if he is truly recovered from his injuries. As for the Broncos, Raiders, and Chiefs: It’s rock bottom time. All three could finish 3-13!

NFC East: The Giants are a good team that is certainly capable of returning to the Super Bowl. I think they will finish with a record of 13-3, putting them right back in the Elite Teams category. Quarterback Eli Manning has to prove that he can lead a very good team and make it a great one. When they won the Super Bowl after 2007, the team carried the quarterback. Now, the tables have turned. I don’t think the Giants get back to the Big Dance, unless the quarterback can now carry the team. The goal of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has been to get the Cowboys ready for Prime Time when their new stadium opens. I think the ‘Boys and the Eagles will make the NFC tournament at 11-5. As for the Redskins, yes they got Haynesworth to improve their defense, but the division is far too strong to allow them to move up. They’ll finish with a losing record, and I think that will cost Head Coach Jim Zorn his job.

NFC North: There is no outstanding team here. I give the edge to the Packers, only because they are so hard to beat at Lambeau Field. I don’t see them losing any division games at home, this year, but still I only see them finishing at 9-7. Brett Favre will not make much difference in the Vikings. In fact, I think they finish 7-9 and miss the playoffs. As for the Bears, they managed to land the QB they coveted when they traded with the Broncos for Jay Cutler. However, Cutler won’t have the kind of receivers he used to have in Denver. I say the Bears will slide to 5-11, costing Lovie Smith his head coaching position. The Lions will be improved, but after an 0-16 finish in 2008, that’s not saying much. I think they will tie Tampa Bay’s all-time record of 26 straight losses, before finally winning in week 11, when Cleveland comes to town.

NFC South: This will be the year that the Saints finally go marching in to a championship game. The defense may not be exactly top-notch, but QB Drew Brees and the offense will be virtually unstoppable. There is tremendous balance in this division, which I think will lead to the Falcons and Panthers disappointing their fans and finishing 8-8. The Buccaneers have a new head coach and will be going through a transition year. I look for them to finish at 6-10 in Ragheim Morris’s first season.

NFC West: Last year, the Cardinals had no competition, going 6-0 in divisional games and making the playoff despite a 9-7 finish. They got hot at the right time and beat the Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles to make it to the Super Bowl, where they nearly beat the Steelers to win the NFL championship. This year, I expect the Cards to be good, but the much-improved Seahawks will catch them in the standings, with both teams finishing at 10-6. Just who goes to the playoffs will likely depend on who wins the game between the two teams in Seattle during Week 6. The 49ers and Rams will both be improved over 2008, but I don’t think either team will win more than 5 games.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

A Gentleman and a Champion

In recent years, I have lost some personal heroes. These were people who meant a great deal to me; who inspired me and promoted my sense of self-esteem, just by being who they were. These men shared with me, being Black Americans. In my youth, I was drawn to them because they were themselves, they were in control of their own business, and they were dominant; even unstoppable. I am talking about men such as Wilt Chamberlain, Ray Charles, James Brown, and, most recently, Michael Jackson.

I find it significant that Alexis Arguello, the Hall of Fame three-division boxing champion, who in 1999 was voted the greatest junior lightweight of the 20th century, and who died last month, has been added to my list of lost heroes. He was neither Black nor American, but he was one of the first athletes from another country (Nicaragua) to set up permanent residence in the heart of this sports fan. Arguello’s physical ability and competitive fire were quite impressive, but it was his demeanor and his manner that set him apart from other athletes.

I first noticed Arguello’s name as a 13-year old youth in 1973, after Alexis entered the ranking of the top ten featherweights in the world, according to Ring Magazine, following knockout wins over contenders Kid Pascualito, Octavio Gomez, and former featherweight champion Jose Legra (in one round). On the strength of these victories, Arguello received a title shot at the WBA Featherweight Champion, Ernesto Marcel. Although Arguello lost this bout, he fared better than expected, losing a close but unanimous decision in Marcel’s home country of Panama. In fact, Marcel retired after the bout.

Arguello remained a ranked fighter, and his reputation was quickly enhanced in a bout with Art Hafey, a Canadian fighter from Nova Scotia, who had been on an impressive winning streak while fighting out of the Fabulous Forum in Inglewood, California. Irish Art had won 18 consecutive bouts in just over a year’s time from late 1972 to early 1974, including knockout wins over the aforementioned Octavio Gomez and of the legendary former world featherweight champion from Mexico, Ruben Olivares, in a bout held in Mexico. Hafey’s brawling, no-holds-barred style made him a favorite of the Mexican-American crowds who attended the semi-monthly cards then held at the Forum.

Olivares, known to his fans as Senor Nacaut (Mr. Knockout), was also a fan favorite at the Forum, having won major fights in that arena since 1968. This made the rematch between Hafey and Olivares, held in Inglewood on March 4 of 1974, a major affair. Hafey lost a split decision that night, but lost none of his status as a very dangerous opponent, who could win a slug-out with anyone.

Hafey traveled to Nicaragua for his bout with Arguello. Unfortunately for Hafey, his come-forward style brought him right into the range of Arguello’s deadly-accurate blows, even increasing their effect. Alexis scored a knockout in the fifth round that definitely raised eyebrows and his world ranking.

Soon after Arguello’s victory over Hafey, Olivares claimed the title that was vacated by Marcel, with a knockout over Zensuke Utagawa in Inglewood. This led to the match up the fans wanted, Olivares vs. Arguello; a bout that simply had to be at the Forum. The fight took place in Inglewood on November 23 of 1974. By all accounts, this was a war of attrition, with both fighters dishing out and receiving a lot of punishment. By round 13, Olivares was slightly ahead on the scorecards. At the end of one exchange in that round, Arguello and Olivares landed left hooks simultaneously. While the punch from Olivares stunned Arguello, Olivares was floored by that from Arguello. In what was then a stunning upset, Alexis Arguello became the featherweight champion of the world.

Over the next two years, Arguello defended his title with knockouts of Leonel Hernandez, Rigoberto Riasco, Royal Kobayashi, and, in a return to the Forum in Inglewood, a third-round knockout of Salvador Torres. However, Arguello was having increasing difficulty making the featherweight limit of 126 pounds. He relinquished his featherweight title and soon began campaigning at 130 pounds, commonly referred to as the junior lightweight or super featherweight division.

Alexis Arguello went undefeated in seven bouts during 1977, including knockouts of top contenders like Alberto Herrera, Cocoa Sanchez, Jose Fernandez, and Jerome Artis. The Fernandez bout was telecast in the United States on CBS Sports Spectacular. I had caught the Arguello-Olivares bout on a broadcast in Spanish out of Mexico, so I knew how Arguello looked and the counter-punching style with which he fought. But this was Arguello’s first real exposure to Americans, who had to admire what they saw. Arguello entered the ring after Fernandez did. He walked over to Fernandez’s corner, smiled and greeted Fernandez’s cornermen, then greeted Fernandez, took his opponent’s face between his gloved hands, and proceeded to thank Fernandez for the opportunity and wished him well. Still smiling, Arguello then returned to his corner. When the bell rang, Arguello was all business and the bout was soon over. Afterwards, Arguello returned to Fernandez, asking the fighter and his cornermen if Fernandez was okay and not simply turning away, but staying for a minute or two and confirming that Fernandez was going to be alright, before leaving the ring.

This display of sportsmanship was nothing short of phenomenal! During Arguello’s rise, another fighter who catapulted to fame was Roberto Duran, whose bouts were often featured on ABC. Duran was as rough a customer as they came. He may well have been the greatest lightweight champion of all time, but Roberto Duran was known to spit on other fighters during pre-fight publicity and call their wives whores, use head butts and thumbs in the ring, and to taunt his victims during and after his title defenses. (After his hard-fought 14th-round TKO victory over American Ray Lampkin in March of 1975, Duran boasted that if he’d only been in shape, they’d have taken Lampkin to the morgue and not the hospital!)

This was in stark contrast to Arguello, who had his sights firmly set on the WBC’s super featherweight champion, Alfredo Escalera. Escalera was a good, but not great, champion, who was known to enter the ring with a snake wrapped around his body. He had won his title with a second-round knockout of Kuniaki Shibata in Japan, and had made 10 successful defenses. His defense against Arguello was held on January 28 of 1978 in Escalera’s native Puerto Rico. Their bout became known as the Bloody Battle of Bayamon. It was televised on CBS.

Once again, Arguello, who entered the ring first, greeted his opponent. Escalera returned Arguello’s words and gestures of encouragement. The two then prepared for warfare. Arguello, who never lost a bout at 130 pounds, was razor-sharp with his punches. During action which surged and ebbed like the tide, with first one fighter dominating and then the other, Arguello opened cuts on Escalera’s mouth, nose, and around his eyes. Still, Escalera was giving just as well as he was taking. Though he was behind on the judges’ scorecards, he had performed well in the 11th and 12th rounds. Early in the 13th round, however, Arguello landed a shot to the head that caused blood to fly in all directions. Referee Arthur Mercante interrupted the action and, on the advice of the ringside physician, stopped the fight. Arguello had won his second world title.

In retrospect, Arguello’s dominance at 130 pounds was astounding. These were his prime years, age 26 to 29, during which he cleaned out the division. Among his eight title victims were Escalera, in their rematch in Italy; another good fight, which ended in round 13. In his following defense, Alexis scored an 11th-round TKO of future champion Rafael "Bazooka" Limon. Next, Arguello defended against Bobby Chacon, who had been a sensation on the West Coast (at the Forum and at the Olympic Auditorium in Los Angeles), for several years. Outboxed in the early rounds by the quicker Chacon, Arguello opened a cut over his opponent’s eye in round 6 and scored a knockdown in round 7. The match was stopped in Chacon’s corner after the 7th round. In his next defense, Arguello was the first to defeat four-time title challenger Ruben Castillo, who came into their bout 46-0. In Castillo’s hometown of Tucson, Arizona, Arguello walked away after a TKO in round 11. His final defense at 130 came against Filipino Rolando Navarrete, a 5th-round TKO that took place in Puerto Rico.

In his first bout as a lightweight (non-title), Arguello battered and stopped Cornelius Boza-Edwards, the former Olympic star from Uganda, in eight one-sided rounds. Like Limon, Chacon, and Navarrete, Edwards went on to win the WBC super featherweight championship that Arguello left behind. (Limon won the vacant title by stopping Idelfonso Bethelmy. Limon lost the title to Boza-Edwards, who lost it to Navarrete, who lost it back to Limon, who lost it to Chacon.) These were all quality fighters, though they all had flaws. They were able to pass the title amongst each other, but none was able to beat a prime Alexis Arguello.

The one misstep that Arguello suffered during these championship years was in a non-title fight on July 26 of 1978. He moved up to lightweight (135 pounds) to face Vilomar Fernandez, a slick boxer from the Dominican Republic, who had previously lost in 13 rounds to Duran in a title shot. Fernandez was quicker than Arguello at the heavier weight. He used constant movement, side-to-side and in-and-out, and struck first with light, non-damaging punches. In a fight that was not particularly pleasing (least of all to the execs at CBS, which again televised an Arguello fight), Fernandez escaped with a majority decision win after 10 rounds.

Alexis certainly did improve as a lightweight. After defeating Boza-Edwards, Arguello, in his next bout, got off the deck to earn a split decision over Jose Luis Ramirez, who would go on to become a champion. Arguello would soon be matched with Scotland’s Jim Watt, who had won the WBC lightweight title vacated by Duran, and had made four successful defenses. Arguello pitched a near-shutout in dominating the bout, which took place on June 20 of 1981 in London, England. It would prove to be Watt’s last fight.

In his first lightweight title defense, Arguello took on a rough customer: the previously unbeaten Ray Mancini, the son of a fighter from Youngstown, Ohio. Mancini had had a few of his fights televised and was already somewhat of a media idol. But he had the determination and the ability it takes to succeed. In his previous fight, Mancini had faced the same Jose Luis Ramirez who had knocked Arguello down and given Arguello all that he could handle. Ramirez was rugged, by any standard. He came into the Mancini fight with a record of 71-3. Though he had been stopped by Olivares some years before, Ramirez had never been off his feet. Fighting before an enthusiastic crowd in Warren, Ohio, Mancini pinned Ramirez to the ropes and unloaded with both hands, round after round. This is the type of fight in which Ramirez usually excelled, but Mancini ignored any blows Ramirez did land and hit Ramirez harder and with greater frequency in each passing round. By the 10th round, the lion had turned into a lamb: Ramirez retreated to the ropes and feebly held up his gloves, meekly accepting his punishment. Though he failed to score a knockdown, Mancini won the NABF lightweight title in a dominant, shutout 12-round decision.

So, this was Arguello’s challenger: Mancini was 20-0 as a professional and was both young and hungry. The bout took place at Bally’s Park Place in Atlantic City, New Jersey on October 3 of 1981. Mancini had youth on his side and was a naturally strong lightweight, where Arguello had moved up in weight. Arguello was just as durable as Mancini, however, and had edges in punching power and in experience. It was another national television appearance for Arguello. Once again, he visited the challenger’s corner after entering the ring second. He greeted Mancini and his cornermen, and kind words and well wishes were exchanged. The sportsmanship and class Arguello always showed, was again on display for the world to see.

The fight was another war. Mancini acquitted himself well, but he trailed on all three scorecards going into the 14th round. In that round, Arguello landed some shots that got Mancini into trouble. Always a fantastic finisher, Arguello flaunted his killer instinct and pounced on Mancini, landing a pulverizing four-punch combination and ending the fight. Afterwards, there was Aguello, again visiting the vanquished fighter’s corner, showing great concern, and giving Mancini words of encouragement, mentioning that he, too, had lost in his first title challenge.

Mancini would go on to win the WBA’s lightweight title the following year. He made four successful title defenses. One of those defenses was against Chacon. After Mancini pinned Chacon to the ropes in round 3 and fired punches until the referee was forced to call a stoppage, Mancini was asked by a member of the press about his relentlessness. Mancini responded that, while he and Arguello respected each other in the ring, Arguello had shown no mercy once Mancini was hurt. Mancini could also show no mercy to Chacon.

Arguello followed up the Mancini fight with KO defenses over Roberto Elizondo (23-1 entering the fight), James "Bubba" Busceme (27-3), Andy Ganigan (34-3), and Kevin Rooney (19-1). These were quality lightweights with impressive resumes. But, Alexis Arguello was, by now, a craftsman at work while he was in the ring. He could withstand a challenger’s best blows and return fire with even harder blows. Arguello would land shots throughout a bout, but was known to put extra emphasis on blows in a bout’s later stages. In this way, Arguello lured fighters in, making them believe they could endure his power shots, when they actually could not.

In 1982, at the age of 30, with a pro record of 79-5 in a career that began in 1968, Alexis Arguello moved up in weight to 140 pounds, to meet his ultimate challenge: Aaron Pryor, the undefeated junior welterweight (super lightweight) champion. Pryor had won the title by ending the second title reign of the legendary Antonio Cervantes, overwhelming the Colombian in four one-sided rounds in Pryor’s hometown of Cincinnati, Ohio in August of 1980. Pryor was known for his defensive lapses, often getting up off the canvas to win his fights in dominant fashion. He would be making his sixth title defense versus Arguello.

The fight was held on November 12 of 1982 at the Orange Bowl in Miami, Florida. Pryor and Arguello staged a legendary, brutal war, with both fighters offering no quarter and seeking none. They traded incredible shots, but Pryor seemed nearly impervious to Arguello’s bombs. Pryor was like an offensive machine in the ring; always able to land power shots from unorthodox angles. His shots were affecting Arguello and wearing the challenger down, slowly. Pryor, on the other hand, was at times stunned throughout the bout, but was never hurt.

After 13 rounds, two of the judges had Pryor ahead in the fight, while the other favored Arguello. I can still rememeber, between rounds, hearing the voice of Pryor’s trainer, Panama Lewis, asking another cornerman to give him "that bottle… the one I mixed." Fighters are allowed to be given only pure water during a fight. Pryor came out for round 14 seemingly rejuvenated after 13 draining rounds. He was able to stun Arguello, then opened fire with both hands. Arguello tried to duck and dodge, but he had too little left. Pryor landed a couple of dozen punches during this barrage, but Arguello refused to fall. The last ten shots all landed flush, leaving referee Richard Steele no choice but to jump between the fighters, ending the bout.

There was Arguello, bent over, out on his feet, but unwilling to fall. It was a scene eerily reminiscent of the one at Chicago Stadium 36 years before it, when Tony Zale, having received more than 30 unanswered blows in round 6 of his second fight for the middleweight title with Rocky Graziano, got knocked out but refused to go down.

Both Zale and Arguello took the kind of sustained punishment that fighters, even champions, never fully recover from. While Zale was able to overcome the odds and take the title back in the rubber match with Graziano, Arguello was a shell of himself in the rematch with Pryor, held on September 9 of 1983 at Caesar’s Palace in Las Vegas. Pounded from the first round on, with no chance to win, Arguello found himself on the canvas in round 10 and simply sat there, letting himself be counted out. It was the end of an era. (At that point, Arguello’s pro record was 79-7. He went on to make two ill-advised comebacks and finished with an overall record of 82-8.)

Such are my memories of a hero. Known for his punching power as "El Flaco Explosivo," Alexis Arguello was also the embodiment of class in a boxing ring. As savage as he could be inside the ropes, he was even more of a gentleman outside of them. His competitive fire was eclipsed only by his humanity and his humility. He was an inspiration to me and to countless others, the world over. Popular in all countries after his boxing days, Arguello remained a hero to his fellow Nicaraguans and was the mayor of Managua at the time of his death. This is a major loss to Nicaraguans, to boxing fans, and to humanity. Alexis Arguello, a great fighter and a great man, has gone to his rest.